6 thoughts on “November 2013

  1. @ J. Boyhan

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/21/gold-the-market-update/

    Martin Armstrong is a big shot (met, worked with presidents around the globe) and like Warren has no bias.

    Armstrong sees the prize hitting way lower sub 1000. Perhaps 600 to 700 isch. I too thought he was mad. But its those trying to shout is higher whom are.

    The sooner and lower the better Armstrong says. If it rises the low will come later and the climb up starts later and takes longer too..

    The ideal would be a low in 2015, if I recall.

    Search on his site it’s all there.

  2. Technical studies on my Stockcharts for weekly $Gold, inclusive from 1980, I note the Log uptrendline pulls in at about $1200, at a 38% linear Fibonacci level, and a 50% concentric Fib.
    The recent low is $1176, so $1150 might be visited before a serious bounce.

    An interesting relative study: $gold vs $spx confirms this ratio has bottomed. Probability is gold will move up relative to the stocks by December.

    Money Flow charts are patterning for an upside breakout, suggesting a true bottom is near.

    Arithmetic and Log charts show 14 year uptrend lines and heavy support patterns at 20 years back for $XAU at 85 and NEM at $25 …and $USD is looking lower to 74. This is not the scenario to be hedging, IMO.

  3. Come on Warren, don’t lose sight of the game here. Your frustration in gold is what bottoms are all about. As an owner since 400, you know that holding gold, even to 1900, has never been a smooth ride. It trades like a true commodity with swings that are downright nasty. Frankly, it may be one of the few markets that’s not manipulated by the fed and therefore trades very technically.
    So let’s look at this market. Hard to believe, but gold bottomed on 6/28/13 –some time ago. It certainly doesn’t feel like it, but it did. It took 75 or so trading sessions of up, then down, to provide a hook (1251 ish) that would create a nice ascending trend channel. This is a necessary evil in providing a solid base. At 1251, recall how we could have fallen apart as this gov’t sidestepped default. The mkt was actually in the 1270 area and just wouldn’t go down — BULLISH price action. That led to a massive rally, which excited the bears, even you. And yes, we did move nicely higher and looked like we could go higher still. But, true to the metal’s knack for hitting us where it hurts, it seemingly failed. But did it? Look at the last 13 sessions, 1251 to 1361.80. Thats 110 points up! Certainly in need of a breather. How about a 50% retrace breather, that would be 1306.4. How about the last 4 sessions of lower lows and lower highs. Stampeding all the complacent longs, stopping out and frustrating many in it’s path. This is gold’s MO, it’s badge, it’s what it has done in many ways since 2002. You’ve owned it, you know the animal. Back to the necessary evil in a mkt that is going higher — we bottomed yesterday at 1305.60. And if you really dig into the frustrating, treacherous retest lows between 10 and 12 yesterday morning, you will see that it was mostly in that 1306.40 area. Three times, in fact. You gotta love that. We are losing traders that want to own this by the day. Great recipe for a mkt that is about to go higher. Also, 1305.60 provides a nice hook for a new ascending channel, the top of which is close to 1400.
    This country is a mess and fundamentals point to a much higher gold price, that’s for certain. We’ve had a monster correction this past year and gold has shed so many famous holders -Paulsen, Soros to name a few. It would be very fitting to see them jump back on at 1400 or 1500 or higher. We may even see a few more days of frustration, that will be good. This is your backyard my friend, look at the technicals here. Use the emotion to your advantage, the “frustration” is a sign. Equities have been treating you well on the way up. You have done well and I give you credit for that. Reanalyze gold and get on board. Looking forward to hearing from you… J. Boyhan subscriber…

    • Appreciate it, thanks.
      Let’s see if $1,300 or so can hold. If so then yes, we could go higher, if not $1,250 is likely.
      I’m not worried about gold since I have some physical for the long-term and I’m not really bothered trying to trade it’s wild,often overnight, swings.
      Thanks.
      Warren

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