Another Wild Day With A Huge Range

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“A year from now you may wish you had started today.” ~Karen Lamb

Another day with a huge range of some 40 handles in the S&P.

Wild!!

I talked in this letter last night about oil having a doji bar which often signals a trend change and we did confirm this today.

Of course, it can fail, but it does look like a low is in for oil on an at least a temporary basis.  We should see 65 before we have to reassess.

I did get long one oil stock today so we will see how it goes.

Markets and many stocks remain wide and sloppy and not really showing a low, but they are close.

Usually wide and loose action points to lower prices.

It is not the V bottom I was looking for, but it may come if we can’t breakout here and now.

SPY December 18, 2014I’m not sure why SPY has such a long bar today when the real low I have is the 198.30 area but it happens sometimes and I’m sure this bar will be corrected soon.

A move above this 202 level would be a buy signal no matter how sloppy things have been.

I’d rather see a spike low but it isn’t up to me.

I didn’t do a lot of buying today which tells you that I’m just not sure yet.

Let’s just see how it goes Thursday.

Have a nice evening.

Warren

No SPY Low But It Is Not Far Off

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear.” George Addair

What a wild day with a good strong open but those are often fake.

The trend usually emerges in the late day as it did today and SPY finished lower than it opened today in what was a very wide range of some 40 handles.

Options are expensive here so it may not really be worth playing them and we remain extremely oversold and are due for a bounce but there is yet no sign of one that I see.

We should see a bottom within a day or two now and we can load up on stocks for the nearly inevitable and large snap higher.

Careful playing in this market on the short side here but look for a great bounce as we’ve seen so many times over the past couple years.

SPY December 17, 2014SPY showed how important this 200 level is today and it also told us we have further to drop.

Looks like the 196 area is now the level to watch for a low to be in.

It will likely spike under that level and then push back up on very heavy volume and that will be the buy signal, along with a few other things I won’t get into.

A V bottom is what I’m looking for.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren

Weakness Persists In An Already Oversold Market

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Don’t wait. The time will never be just right.” ~Napoleon Hill

My apologies for not getting a free weekend letter or an update out this weekend.

This time of year can be very busy, and fun, and I let it get the best of me and in all honesty, I would have made work more of a priority over the weekend had the market not been junk and if I had any positions on.

It is nice to play hooky the odd time!

A good sized gap open which was nothing but a trap.

Markets faded not long after showing a quick breakout on the 15 minute chart.

I didn’t do anything for a long time today but I did find a short later in the day that could work pretty well this week.

While we are very oversold, things are not showing me any sign of a bounce quite yet.

It remains a very dangerous market so any positions taken should be relatively small for now or just sit in cash.

SPY December 16, 2015SPY is breaking 200 now on heavy volume.

If we’d closed above 200 it would have a good sign a low is in but it isn’t.

We should see a low within a day or three but all we can do is let the market tell us when this is to be.

196 is the next support level under the 100 day average at 198.59.

Markets can remain irrational for long periods of time.

Usually we do see strength this time of year and I do expect a nice sharp bounce into years end once a low is in but time will tell.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren

Wild As The Wind

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Believe you can and you’re halfway there.” ~Theodore Roosevelt

What a wild day.

A huge move up then a slow roll over followed by major volatility off the lows and then back down to hit new lows.

In the end, we ended where we opened the day on the gap open for the SPY.

Wild indeed and cash is my place to be.
We did take some WUBA Wednesday at the close for a bounce pay and we sold it up about 7% early today for a nice gain.
Have to be very quick and on the ball to play in this market.
I am doing some day-trading though as that is all we can really do but markets and stocks are set to roll over now.
Wild sloppy and loose action is rarely conducive to higher prices.

 

SPY December 12, 2014A full round trip for SPY and it is setup for lower.

A break under 204 is the short level with support now at 202 and 200.

Careful though and be ready to exit quickly if the trade does not go your way right away.

That said, this volatility can be very profitable if you’re on your game.

Enjoy your evening and this volatility.

Warren

Quick Or The Dead

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Every strike brings me closer to the next home run.” ~Babe Ruth

A wild day to the downside that accelerated late in the day and changed the completion of this market.

We are quite oversold now but we can still move lower from here.

I raised a ton of cash today booking some good gains and a few smaller losses as well.

I’m pretty well all cash now once again but I do have some good setups ready for when we do bounce within a couple days.

It remains a tough market and doubly so if you sit through the declines that have not yet amounted to anything but still, it is hard to sit through them.

SPY December 11, 2014SPY is bouncing between 204 and minor support at 203 now but more substantial support sits at 202 and 200.

Have to be very quick if you’re going to try to trade this and options are expensive as a result of the volatility making it a very dangerous affair.

Careful out there!

Warren

As Wild As They Come

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” ~Will Rogers

A large gap lower to open the day that was erased by the end of the day.

Dips remain to be bought.

All the large gap did was scare out traders who fail to realize this and that is their own issue.

It is a bull market!

Stocks remain very strong in the case of leaders and I’m riding it for all it’s worth and also playing a few options here and there when days like today present themselves.

Gold had a huge day today after I mentioned last night in this full letter that gold looked ok now all of a sudden.

I’m still not too sure what to make of the gold move since we’ve seen this wild volatility just last week and it may well not hold overnight.

I rather play in a safer arena that can still move fast, but much more predictably.

SPY December 10, 2014SPY bounced right off 204 support and moved higher all day although it did lag the QQQ and IWM

I told real-time members that SPY and BABA calls looked good off lows and many did very well in those.

I took some weekly 206 calls later in the day at $1.07 and sold half at $1.27 or so at the close.

Let’s see what the rest can do but closing back above 206 is so, so bullish.
208 is next and then a breakout higher from what the chart is telling me thins evening.

Have a wonderful evening.

Warren

Slippery Oil When Wet

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.” ~Jimmy Johnson

A bit of a strange day with a lot of weakness in many stocks, especially oil related stocks, and markets also fell back some.

Luckily, our stocks are holding up and doing very well, especially REGN and CELG and I’ve got my eye on a couple more.

Things still do look fine, but I’ve said the same thing many times this year only to see stocks just meander around.

It has been a tricky year and so far, remains so.

That said, we are grabbing gains when we can and we saw some decent ones today, although they are still only paper gains.

SPY December 9, 2014SPY remains in this channel and fine so support at 206 could, be a starting buy area while a breakout above 208 is the main buy level.

I’d like to see us break above 208 within a couple days or we do risk not breaking out.

Select stocks are doing well though and that remains our focus unless markets break down.

Enjoy your night.

Warren