I Just Don’t Know

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“If you can’t live through adversity, you’ll never be good at what you do. You have to live through the unfair things, and you have to develop the hide to not let it bother you and keep your eyes focused on what you have to do.” — Maurice “Hank” Greenberg

I don’t really know what’s going on here to be honest.

I thought we’d see a period of consolidation, and we are, but I thought I’d be able to grab a few shorts during this time but it‘s a no go so far.

I’ve tried 3 short positions in the last week and all stopped me out for small losses.

This market just doesn’t want to stop with AAPL hitting new highs today, AMZN on the cusp and MSFT not far behind either.

For me, I think doing nothing for a few days and keeping a close eye for new setups to form is best.

I always find, and have learned the hard way numerous times, that if I don’t know what to do, then do nothing.

SPY bounced at the 50 day average and now has closed back above the 21 day average, which is positive, but I’m still having a hard time believing it, for now at least.

I just think we need more rest but I’ve been wrong before.

Time will tell.

Enjoy your evening and see the rest of this letter by subscribing.

Warren

Bear Flags

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him.”  G.K. Chesterton

We continue to see weakness and that’s fine.

The market has been nice and steadily moving higher since early December so a nice break is due, and fine, and will just keep this bull market intact.

When we do see a move straight up and see stocks making extreme moves we will know the end of the bull market is in sight but that day is not today.

SPY is looking to break this small bear flag and could use a refreshing move down to the 226 support area where the 100 day average just so happens to sit.

Let’s see how it goes but a weak close Friday turned the weekly chart bearish.

Cash remains my preference with a couple shorts and maybe a few more set to pop up.

See the rest of this letter by subscribing and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Warren

Fickle Bounce

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”  Jerzy Gregorek

A bit of strength the past couple of days but after such a heavy volume crack lower Tuesday, more consolidation is needed.

Cash is a great place to be with the odd long or short but we need some time to setup the charts again before I’ll be heavy.

We did fade into the close which is what I’d expect at the moment and the early strength was on amoebic volume which doesn’t help the bull case for the short-term.

SPY does not look strong here.
I’d expect at least a test of the 50 day average at 231.85 or so and maybe a move to the 227.50 area.
That said, if we can move back above the 21 day average at 235.20 that would tell me a low is most likely in.

Time will tell but my guess remains 6 to 8 weeks of consolidation before we see the next trending move higher.

There will be swing trades as we wait.

Enjoy the rest of this letter by subscribing and have a nice evening.

Warren

Sold It All

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“The first and the best victory is to conquer self.” – Plato 

Well that wasn’t too fun a day, but not too bad either if you cashed out, as I did.

Unless you are shorting stocks, it’s times like these that you should take off and enjoy some life and spend some of the money we’ve just made.

Sadly, this is about a month early for my next planned trip on the bike.

I did take a short in ALGN today and I may try a few more.

GS and several other leaders are saying we need a nice long consolidation now,  likely 6 to 8 weeks.

Notice, I say consolidation, not correction or bear market.

Seeing the S&P pullback 5% or so and forming a new pattern would be ideal and is very likely as we remain a ways off from the blowoff top in this bull market in my view.

No go for SPY falling on heavy volume.

It’s all good though.

Let’s see where we find support but this may be a nice break in the strong bull market we’re in the midst of.

I’d look for a spike to the 100 day average at 225 or so as a potential low, but it doesn’t matter what I “think”.

I’ll be watching and looking for signs of lows and that’s all I can really do.

See the rest of this letter and get a few potential short positions that may hit.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren

No Reason To Be Bearish

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“They may forget what you said, but they will never forget how you made them feel.” – Carl W. Buechner

A quiet Friday as many traders turned in their computers for taps and green beer.

We remain in an uptrend, and will until we don’t.

No reason to be bearish at all here.

SPY looks fine and dandy and remains in an uptrend.

Get the rest of this letter, then enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Warren

Ripping On Rate Hike

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“Money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver.” —Ayn Rand

A bit of giveback today after the sweet, sweet action of Wednesday afternoon after it was announced the interest rates are increasing 0.25% as widely expected.

This was baked into the market, as I’ve talked about, and the apparent weakness of Tuesday was just to shake out the weak hands.

All good still as we continue to trend higher.

As for my NUGT position I had Monday, sold for a small loss Tuesday, but had a feeling it would work, it sure did Wednesday afternoon.

Can’t win them all but it would have been nice.

SPY is fine and looking for a move higher once it finishes this consolidation.

Superb action with volume where it should be, low on weak days and high on strong days.

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Have a great night.

Warren

‘Twas The Night Before A Rate Hike

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.” – Ernest Hemingway

Volatility picked up this storm day in NYC and on the even of a likely 0.25% rate increase.

That said, the rate hike is baked in and I don’t see this little spat of weakness as anything other than that, for now.

I saw some strength in metals and did try a NUGT position Monday but I was stopped out for about $0.30/share loss today.

The miners usually lead the metals, and may again tomorrow, but I had to  get out today.

Metals usually do fine around Fed speak but so far not this time.

SPY continues to hold nicely above the 21 day moving average as the uptrend continues, with a little rest right now.

Wednesday will be interesting to see how stocks close the day and then we should get a good idea Thursday of if we need more time or if we’re ready to bust higher again.

I think the later.

Have a great night and don’t forget to get the rest of this letter.

Warren