All Cash Again

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength; mastering yourself is true power.”  Lao-Tzu

Markets showed a hefty gap down overnight which held so I was doing some selling after we opened and saw a small quick rip higher.

I’m all back to cash now and markets are once again very volatile and the bottom I said I thought was in does now look vulnerable.

We have a long weekend coming up and I’m going to take a couple days away beforehand and avoid the chop while it’s still summertime.

There won’t be a blog or report tomorrow evening but I should be back for Thursday evening.

I’m going to take a quick rip around the beautiful Gaspe peninsula and just get away and have some fun on the bike.

SPY September 2, 2015SPY was very weak today and broke the important 195 level and could not regain footing above it again.

I sold out of almost everything pretty early in the day into the little rip that we see so many times after a large gap down open.

I was out of a few around cost, booked a few decent gains but I did take a couple very small losses.

SUPN was the standout that was still strong from my 16.40 buy level but I did check out around 19 late in the day.

I’m not willing to hold stocks in this weak market and of note is many traders do take this whole week off before sending the kids back to school and that’s why volume is not as higher as you’d expect with this type of move.

All in all, take a few days off.

Have a great couple of days.

Warren

A Choppy Session

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“If you haven’t the strength to impose your own terms upon life, you must accept the terms it offers you.”  T.S. Eliot

Futures gaped lower and remained so for the open

Markets were weak to open, then came back well before falling again.

Basically we are seeing chop again.

The low still looks to be in place but that can change.

I’m still quite heavy in stocks but those who hit my stops were sold today.

All my pick don’t always work and I’m generally not in the mood to see my stops taken out, especially in this market that is still a bit on the suspect side/cautiously bullish.

SPY September 1, 2015SPY is holding well enough here in this very sharp/volatile chart.

As long as we hold above 195 on a closing basis the low is in.

So, now we are building this range between 200 and 195 with 197.50 the pivot area to watch the behaviour.

That said, I won’t put up with stocks not working but this chart looks good as we continue to build a base that should see us good to go by November or a bit earlier.

Have a great evening.

Warren

Strong Action, But Weak Futures

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Hide not your talents, they for use were made. What’s a sun-dial in the shade?”  Benjamin Franklin

A great Friday that saw our positions holding up very well along with markets so I took off on the bike for the afternoon and kept watch on the phone but had nothing to do in terms of selling and I’m not really looking to buy more right now.

That said markets are gaping lower pretty sharply early this Sunday evening so I may well have to do some selling Monday but you just never know how futures will hold overnight so I’ll be looking forward to waking up and seeing how things held up.

SPY August 31, 2015Good stuff from SPY as long as it remains above 195 and it is moving to 205 as the next resistance area.

We have a long weekend coming up so if we do roll over again hard here I’ll be back to cash and maybe take off for a couple or few days on the bike, but hopefully, stocks will continue to show strength.

I hope you had a special weekend as summer is drawing to a close far too quickly, as always.

Warren

Bottom Appears To Be In

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“May you live all the days of your life.”  Jonathan Swift

A great strong day for markets and most stocks after the behaviour changed Wednesday afternoon.

It looks like the low is in and I’m heavy into stocks at the moment but I’ve been wrong before.

I’m ready to sell if need be and hopefully we are done with the wild gaps and can continue to form the major bases which should propel us higher in the fall.

SPY August 28, 2015SPY had a great day and should now move to the 205 and 206 areas where resistance and the 200 day average sits before we see much consolidation.

All in all, great stuff with subscribers and I and even those who heed my words in the free blog having sat out the wild moves and now we’re into stocks after seeing positive action.

Half the battle is not trading all the time, rather preserving capital and pouncing on opportunities.

Have a great Friday and weekend.

Warren

A Marked Market Change

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“May you live all the days of your life.”  Jonathan Swift

Another huge gap open and then we began to fade.

Things did look like they were going to roll over so I shorted SPY at 189 and lost about $0.30 and I also tried a NFLX short and lost about $2 so not spectacular, but something to do I suppose.

If it were sunnier perhaps I’d have saved that money and just gone to the beach…

Anyhow, after I took some losses things really began to perk up and several bottoms began to break higher after consolidating for a few days so I did quite a bit of buying the last hour or two.

I was looking to reduce into the close but strength was evident so I held.

I know I’ve warned about holding overnight but the behavior changed for the positive today so now we wait to see if I’m right and head higher or not.

I am not even risking 1% of my portfolio per position but we could certainly gap down large and increase that number.

You’ve got to be able to be quick and identify changes in this type of market and I think I have, but I’ve been wrong before.

I’m not sure if these trades will be just overnight or a few days or, if all goes well, they may be able to be held for months from these low levels, ideally.

SPY August 27, 2015We’ve seen a few days of consolidation now and the Nasdaq is leading us higher out of this consolidation but I need to see IWM and SPY confirm tomorrow or this strength is likely to fade.

I may have bought too much today and tomorrow will tell that tale but the strength I was seeing in my positions justified my new buys, to me at least, and for now.

A good SPY move above 195 should see a swift move to 205.

Have a nice night.

Warren

Can You Handle The Truth?

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“And in the end it’s not the years in your life that count. It’s the life in your years.”  Abraham Lincoln

And, the truth is, this is not a market, but a casino.

Betting on a gap up or down overnight is not my game so I refuse to participate.

Sure, you can get lucky and win, but you may not.

The only moves we’re really seeing for the last week are large and happen overnight and I won’t play.

Myself and most subscribers are all cash and have missed the good and bad of this very volatile period.

That said, I did get lucky enough to grab a solid SPY short in the last hour and that was good for about 3 points points in about 45 minutes but you’ve got to be there and watching closely to get those quick day-trades and it’s debatably worth it.

SPY August 26, 2015SPY opened with a massive gap higher and was steady most of the day until the last hour when I got short and then it totally tanked.

All I can say is, I’m not holding overnight and I’m not trading unless I see something solid like the last hour swoon today.

Be careful out there and don’t feel like you’re missing something.
It’s much better to miss an opportunity than be missing your capital in this type of market.

Have a great night.

Warren

Where Do We Go From Here?

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Continuous effort – not strength or intelligence – is the key to unlocking our potential.”  Liane Cordes

Just an insane day that began with futures heavily lower Sunday evening and overnight.

By the time stocks opened markets and stocks were so heavily lower that it gave serious lag to my trading platform.

Many people had issues with this platform and if it doesn’t work in the worst of times then it’s time for me to look for a new one, which is a pain, but I did miss out on some serious gains today with these massive snapbacks.

That said, I’m all cash so it could be much worse had I been trying to sell and not been able to.

Moves like this do take time to digest so we can’t expect a major comeback and expect all to be well again.

So, while we are in the throws of a nice correction and it may be painful for many who remain in stocks, wishing, and not looking at reality, we are setting up well for the fall breakout I’ve talked about for months now.

I’m still waiting for setups to form and I will not trade unless my platform is rock-solid again but it seems when volatility and volume pickup the platform slows in a large way.

There are going to be some great buy points emerge but I don’t think it’s here quite yet.

SPY August 25, 2015Basically, this is not the market to hold overnight or try to catch the proverbial falling knife.

Let’s wait for a more certain bottom to form whenever that may be.

Honestly, I really don’t know what to do at the moment except stay in cash and wait until things become more clear.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren