Keep An Eye On That Doji. That’s What She Said!

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money. And I am only right when I make money. That is speculating.” – Jesse Livermore

A pretty quiet day until the Fed news came out and they are not doing anything unexpected really, they are cutting bond buying by 15 billion instead of the 10 billion we’ve seen for a while now.

Once the news came the usual gyrations came and went and we continued higher in the end, until giving back some gains into the end of the day.

What was interesting is that some recent leading stocks did set off some of my alerts and I did buy some before the Fed news came out, something I try to shy away from doing.

I did take one small loss in one of my new positions but that is to be expected.

All in all, things are looking much better and clearer to the upside today.

That said, SPY QQQ and IWM did print Doji bars which can represent reversals of the trend so I’ve got to see what Thursday brings.

SPY September 18, 2014SPY had a nice day until the late weakness.

The Doji bar is something to be aware of and if we begin to see weakness I’ll be locking in my gains quickly tomorrow.

Have a sweet evening.

Warren

Topsy Turvy Markets

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“It is not enough to have a good mind. The main thing is to use it well.” – Rene Descartes

An interesting day for sure.

This is a very complex topping going on in the markets and it keeps changing and throwing me for a loop.

It still does appear we may need a little more time consolidating but my mind may change on that front tomorrow.

I only have longs and no hedges at all right now but I’m not too heavy into stocks anyhow.

There are some stocks who are doing well but recent leaders for the most part have been hit lately and today saw only a sharp bounce, not a solid buy point.

SPY September 17, 2014SPY is now rising and on heavy volume.

It looks great, but it hasn’t been the leading index lately but the QQQ has been and it looks quite good so far.

I really need to see what Wednesday brings but at the moment, indexes look good while stocks don’t so caution is advisable.

Have a nice night.

Warren

S#*@ Happens

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“I have learned through the years that after a good run of profits in the markets, it`s very important to take a few days off as a reward. The natural tendency is to keep pushing until the streak ends. But experience has taught me that a rest in the middle of the streak can often extend it.”- Martin Schwartz, in Pit Bull

An interesting day as we begin to roll over now, being led by the Nasdaq and IWM.

Some stocks were hit pretty hard today while some did very well.

It’s a time to be pretty heavy in cash in my view except for select stocks who may do well but, in a weaker market we can’t expect too much from stocks so I may be raising my cash levels very soon.

I have some NPSP, but only a 3% weighting, and it was halted on pending news all of Friday.

The news ended up being very good but the stock was hit hard on a gap open lower, ending down some 16%.

It is no fun but it can happen, especially in this biotech and pharma sector since so much depends on news events.

I’ve warned about this in the past and will many times in the future as this bull market rolls on.

I’ve got to take the bad with the good and so far, today was tough in terms of NPSP being off some 16% for the day but I’ll get more into that later on in tonights letter.

 

SPY is close to breaking this small head and shoulders top and I can’t believe it didn’t with the weakness in QQQ and IWM today.

Expect some more weakness for a few more weeks or so on balance.

Have a lovely evening.

Warren

We May Correct After-All

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.” – Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator

A weaker Friday with markets consolidating and some of the recent leading stocks seeing me exit before they drop further.

Looks like some money is rotating into the financials, who tend to move slower, but I am still finding select stocks who are moving fast or about to.

SPY September 15, 2014It’s been hard trying to figure out what is forming in the SPY lately.  I’ve now gone from thinking it was a bull flag just Thursday, to now a small head and shoulders top.

This small head and shoulders targets a break to the 100 day.

I can change my mind daily as things develop and that is why it is so important to look at charts or read my work daily.

Things looked so good Wednesday and Thursday but then Friday came and my tune is now changed dramatically.

I am not, nor will I be, right all the time but I will change my mind in a heartbeat if warranted.

I will do what it takes to succeed and not being stuck in a certain mindset is extremely important in that regard.

Have a swell weekend.

Warren

On The Verge

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” – Bruce Kovner, hedge fund manager

It’s not just a Tragically Hip song, markets are on the verge of moving now as well.

A solid day that continues to point to strength.

While we aren’t breaking out higher, we are consolidating very nicely and can’t even get any sort of decent pullback so far.

Instead of the 2 steps forward, one step back moves we see so often, we are seeing 2 steps forward, a nap, and the 2 more steps forward.

SPY September 12, 2014SPY is trying to go here out of this descending channel.

200.40 is a buy point but I am more focused on stocks who move faster so I doubt I’ll take any on the breakout in the SPY ETF.

Enjoy your evening, Friday and the weekend ahead.

Warren

To Consolidate Or Not To Consolidate

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.” – Jesse Livermore

Not too bad a day with some stocks starting to show some strength while markets are continuing to consolidate very nicely.

Some days it seems like we need a few more weeks of consolidation and then we get days like today that it seems we want higher right away.

I’m only picking the best stocks who will show me the best results, much better than the indices and the are showing their colours today.

September 11, 2014SPY is tracing out a bull flag type pattern here now with this 200 area a buy point but it could also morph into a small head and shoulders if we don’t move higher within a couple or few days.

All in all, things are still good.

Have a wonderful late summer evening and Thursday.

Warren

Apple Is The New Fed

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching.”- Jesse Livermore

A weak day as we continue to base which can last another 6 weeks or so.

Things weren’t too bad but then while the AAPL presentation was going on markets began to get pretty wild, almost like on a fed day.

Once the presentation ended we began to see weakness really take hold.

AAPL lost much of their gains and even moved negative and GTAT, the maker of the sapphire glass, was hit hard and ended down over 12%.

I, and many other were really looking forward to having sapphire glass in the new iPhone since it is basically indestructible and that means no more skin over the screen.

Unfortunately sapphire glass seems to only be on the small screen watch which we really have no idea how it will do.

The watch requires the iPhone and does come with a hefty price-tag of a $349.

It sure does look cool but I for one am a late adapter and like to see how it works in the real world before jumping in with my wallet.

Time will tell.

We did own GTAT a while ago but it acted poorly and we got out for a loss.  I’ve been eying it ever since and it has acted pretty good but today’s news event was almost like earnings and it didn’t go their way.

Not doubt, it will in time but that time is not yet.

SPY September 10, 2014SPY is testing and barely holding the 21 day average so far.

I’ve been talking about this nice consolidation recently and it is set to continue.

For now, a move down to test the 196 area looks to be next.

Thanks for reading.

Warren