It’s Just A Normal Correction At The Right Time Of Year

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“You will fall. And when you fall, the winner always gets up, and the loser stays down.” Arnold Schwarzenegger

Some more volatility came into stocks today as summer rolls on.

Miners were strong Wednesday and foretold the gold strength today as often happens and now gold and silver are once again on the verge of a breakout, after being rejected strongly from those levels Monday.

I’m mostly just doing some day trading, and a top pick for that is VRX, since it’s very liquid and moves fast.

I will be establishing a position in VRX once the signal comes, but until then, it’s a fine day-trading vehicle I’ve found.

So, looks like we will see more corrective action which is great, so enjoy the summer!

I’m trying to eek out a couple or few early trades and then take the afternoons off if the weather is sunshiny!

SPY closed definitively below the 50 day average on heavy volume.

I’d enjoy a move down to the gap area at 238 but who knows in this wild and very strong market overall.

In my view, the bull market still has legs, but needs a rest.

Have a great evening.

Warren

Go Pats!!!

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“The secret of getting ahead is getting started. The secret of getting started is breaking your complex overwhelming tasks into small manageable tasks, and then starting on the first one.” — Mark Twain

Well, not much to say except stocks continue to base so day-trading and trading small and carefully is key until we see stocks begin to act better and it’s only a matter of time until they do so surviving until then is key.

And also, go Pats!!!

SPY February 2, 2015SPY is near done building the right shoulder of this possible head and shoulders pattern now which would take us down to 289 to fill the gap from back in October.

A break of 199 is the short level but tight stops are key in case it doesn’t work.

Enjoy the game!

Warren

SPY Thoughts May 16

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups**

“To live is the rarest thing in the world.  Most people exist, that is all”  Oscar Wilde

More weakness early as the S&P failed its breakout as I talked about here was the most likely outcome.

We did see some bounces later in the day but this market is still dangerous and only for small trades or day-trading.

I haven’t been doing any day-trading really but I may step in a bit more often since I’m sick and tired of not making any money!

We did try some SPY calls and have a few left but I sold 75% of the position at cost since I do not want any real risk.

We also bought VIPS since it is trying to breakout of a super base and stocks and markets are pretty oversold so a bounce should come.

I’ve been saying VIPS has the best base out there for over a week or longer now in the members section.

Let’s check things out.

SPY May 16, 2014SPY reversed after I pointed out the small top bar a couple days ago.

No big shock with stocks so beat up and no volume on the breakout.

It’s not rocket science, really just common sense.

I have a small long position using weekly calls and they could work but next week we may get a good chance to short this index ETF.

Have a great Friday and I’ll be in touch on the weekend or likely tomorrow for you real-time members.

Warren

SPY Thoughts February 10

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups**

Whether you think you can or you think you can’t, you’re right. –Henry Ford

A stunning two day move for markets but that is what happens in corrections.

Counter-trend moves come hard and fast and last a couple or few days so we will soon see if a bottom is indeed in but for now I’m still not so sure.

Stocks ripped higher and we were lucky enough to take some nice profits day-trading this week and Friday.

Let’s take a look at the index charts to begin and then move into quite a few charts and try to identify the leaders who are or will lead us out of this correction.

SPY February 10, 2014

SPY had two huge days in a row and the levels I gave worked well if you traded them.

Now we’re at resistance at $180.

We do have a nice U pattern in place here now and if we breakout above $180 it’s a buy with stops right at the buy point.

I’d like to see up to three days resting here before we breakout higher.

All that said, we are approaching the neutral line from very oversold levels and often the neutral line is a sell after the moves we just had.

I’m really not sure yet where we go from here and there is no need to rush into things yet until we get a little more clarity.

Enjoy the weekend and Monday.

Warren

SPY Thoughts January 29

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups**

Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans. –John Lennon

Sorry about missing last night, I was feeling under the weather but have really come around this afternoon.

I’ll be back in full force tomorrow.

That said, it was a great time to catch a little flu or whatever it was.

In times like these I like to be all or mostly cash and right now I’m all cash.

Markets are due for a bounce here but with the Fed coming out with a decision on monetary policy tomorrow afternoon I’d not expect too much movement until then.

There were some great bounces though off over sold levels from ICPT NFLX IDRA and many others.

Those are only for quick traders though until we can establish better buy areas.

Remember that in corrections, countertrend moves come sharp and hard and that is what we are seeing in many stocks now.  Those moves don’t last too long though so don’t get married to any long trades yet.

It’s best to just sit back and watch the action for the most part as this correction morphs.

On that note, I will keep it pretty short tonight so let’s check out the index charts to begin.

SPY January 29, 2014

SPY tested and held its $178 support area and now by all rights should move to $181 before we see resistance.

A huge caveat is that nobody knows what the Fed will say tomorrow and that can move markets large either way.

The Fed does not want markets to move lower with any strength so we have to expect them to ease but that would still be a bet and not a great one in my view.

There is no real rush getting back into stocks yet.

Trying to nail highs and lows is a tough game but catching 80% of the move is much more reasonable so I’m being patient here for now while doing a few day-trades.

Have a nice evening.

Warren

SPY Thoughts August 1

**These were my thoughts on the SPY ETF to subscribers in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups**

A wild day indeed with markets really ending flat in the end.  It’s an absolute goldmine for quick day-traders but you’ve got to be very quick.

We saw some major moves from MA and V as MA was up large on earnings then faded and was hit by a new fee or something.  Both V and MA were smashed and some options that were selling for only $0.24 went to $24 in a heartbeat.

You can retire on that but even if you only had 10 contract  you’d pocket a smooth 24k minus your $240 buy.

Amazing!

Wish I’d had it.

I haven’t traded AAPL much at all lately but today I tweeted my shorts and I took two of them nailing the top twice and the low twice….lucky today ;)

The S&P remains in it’s range and that pesky $169.15 or so area remains a major pivot area.

Let’s move right into the charts tonight.

SPY August 1, 2013

SPY had a wild ride today with several entries for short-term trades.  The $169.15 area remains a magnet but I won’t hold anything until we close out of this range one way or another on a closing basis.

Seeing the Nasdaq show a failed breakout today as it was trying to lead us higher isn’t great but until we break one way or the other we remain the same.

As I like to say, the range can be traded off until it can’t.

SPY Thoughts July 31

**These were my thoughts on the SPY ETF to subscribers in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups**

Another day spent in ranges for the indexes but we saw some great moves in a few like FB and AZO broke above my buy point as well.

I ended up cashing out for really nice profits in FB today and it looks like that was a mistake so I’ll get into new buy points later on when we look at it’s chart.

We got a great short in the SPY today and I tweeted that buy out but it’s still only for day-trading as long as we remain stuck between $168 and $170.

For a bit today markets really moved lower quickly in advance of the Fed meetings Wednesday and that’s what scared me out of FB.

I doubt much new will come out in the meeting but it’s the action and reaction to the talk that matters most so we have to wait and see although we did get a tip today about a very important sector which should do well going forwards.

The way this sector moved today is telling me something very important about Fed policy.

Charts almost always tell the news before it comes, but I’ll touch on that later.

SPY July 31, 2013The SPY just can’t even get above the $169.15 or so area but it’s larger range remains $170 to $168.

I have no idea if we’ll break higher or lower but as I said last night, hanging out in the lower end of it’s range points to a resolution lower for now.

That said as the 21 day comes up it may push us higher.  That could be next week.