Breaking Lower

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.”  Jack Bogle

We broke Friday and now I’m looking to get into some short positions.

The chop continues so that remains how we have to play this market using short-term swing trading strategies.

The US dollar continued to bounce which helped push stocks lower Friday .

TLT also continues to be strong and it usually moves in opposite directions to stocks but it may be topping after printing a doji bar Friday, which will be confirmed with a lower close Monday.

Lots of confusion in this market where only swings trades continue to work.

SPY June 12, 2016I’ll look to see how 207.50 then 205 support areas hold in the week ahead.

We should be able to grab some nice gains on the short side but you’ve got to be pretty quick.

Enjoy your weekend.

Warren

Gyrations

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. ”  George Soros

Some good strong action early in the day until the Fed reiterated their desire to crater markets and hike rates in June.

Time will tell this tale but I’d not be opposed to reaping large quick gains in some short positions just before summer kicks into full gear!

SPY May 19, 2016SPY is still setting up for a break lower as I see this chart.

I’m still short 15% in SPY from 205.50.

The next short level is a break of 203.90.

Have a super evening.

Warren

Gap And Crap

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery.”  Spike Milligan

Another day, another gap and today’s gap lower was just the start of what was a very weak day.

Now, we are oversold so some consolidation would be best.

We are still on track to put a nice low in by mid-October or so and then we can pile into the right stocks and more importantly, the right stocks at the right time.

It’s been a while without any real trades but it’s soon to pay off.

That said, I did short a bit today in ADXS at 12.40 and CSGP at 170 and I did hold some overnight in small size.

SPY September 29, 2015Good stuff from SPY that is holding 197.50 for now and and we are pretty oversold now so a little consolidation would be best before we perhaps put in a double bottom.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren

Weak Markets Give Strong Rallies But They Don’t Last

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Confine yourself to the present.”  Marcus Aurelius

A strong Friday to be sure but weak markets do tend to give sharp strong but very short-lived rallies.

I still do not see this as being a low but that can change.

Most stock charts are still a mess so cash remains king.

SPY October 20, 2014SPY had a huge day but did gap higher and I was in no mood to take a trade late Thursday and risk it.

I do take trades at the end of the day once the daily bar is near complete, but only in select situations and I have not seen that situation appear yet.

A move above the 200 day and 190 area with volume and on a closing basis would be good and I may reconsider my stance then but as I said, so many charts are very broken and need time to give us safer entries.

Enjoy your weekend.

Warren

False Bottom Girl

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Because a thing seems difficult for you, do not think it impossible for anyone to accomplish.”  Marcus Aurelius

A decent day for markets but I am still skeptical of a low being place.

While many people will call a low after the last two days, it is false from my learnings.

Stocks remain very dangerous but can be good for day-trading.

Small sizes and the ability to be very quick and use tight stops is key, otherwise sitting in cash is the thing to do for the moment.

It is earnings season and we always have to be aware of when a company reports and reduce or exit the position before they report but there is not much need to harp on about that yet since cash is king.

SPY October 17, 2014SPY has a 2 day bottom setup, at least that is what many would have you believe.

The proper reversal has to close on lows the first day and then close on highs the next with the bars being equal.

What we have was two closes in the upper half which tells me it’s a trap.

We may form a large range here before moving lower again from what I see tonight but that can change with tomorrows action.

Be very, VERY careful if you must trade or stay in cash.

I went for a splendid drive today on a low cloud warm fall day with leaves in full colour and then a nice walk along the calm bays of the island and just enjoyed life a bit for a few hours mid-day.

When it’s busy, I’m office locked but when markets are junk I try to get out for some exercise and relaxation.

Of course I’m listening to some business podcasts and keeping an eye on the markets and news with my iPhone all the while but getting out of the office is important when we can.

We are so blessed to live in this day and age with phones and internet capabilities so take advantage of it!

Warren

Intra-day Trades Only

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be.”  John Wooden

Another weak day for markets and stocks whose charts are showing sever damage now.

That said, we are very oversold and I covered all my shorts near the end of the day today for some solid gains all in all and I almost went long some SPY calls but I did not see the action I wanted in order for me to take that trade.

It may be a do nothing kind of day Wednesday but time will tell, not me.

I am long in very small size a couple smaller stocks that I’ll touch on later for subscribers.

I just want to mention one last time that tonight is the last chance you’ll have to join this 3 month term of my real-time trading.

It’s only $100 a month and it does include this nightly full letter.

Please subscribe here http://wizzentrading.com and see just how quickly you will pay for this service and then much more.

SPY October 15, 2014No real sign of a bounce here but SPY did print a bit of a Doji bar today which often signals a trend reversal after a move, but it wasn’t good enough to get me long the SPY with calls.

I may take a trade tomorrow or I may not.

It is really hard to say much in this type of market since there are no good setups on the long or short-side yet so only real-time members can get my thoughts throughout the day as setups may develop.

Careful out there!

I’m playing in small size only, if at all.

Warren

S#*@ Happens

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups.  Subscribe to my nightly Daily Trade Ideas on the right to see the rest of this letter.**

“I have learned through the years that after a good run of profits in the markets, it`s very important to take a few days off as a reward. The natural tendency is to keep pushing until the streak ends. But experience has taught me that a rest in the middle of the streak can often extend it.”- Martin Schwartz, in Pit Bull

An interesting day as we begin to roll over now, being led by the Nasdaq and IWM.

Some stocks were hit pretty hard today while some did very well.

It’s a time to be pretty heavy in cash in my view except for select stocks who may do well but, in a weaker market we can’t expect too much from stocks so I may be raising my cash levels very soon.

I have some NPSP, but only a 3% weighting, and it was halted on pending news all of Friday.

The news ended up being very good but the stock was hit hard on a gap open lower, ending down some 16%.

It is no fun but it can happen, especially in this biotech and pharma sector since so much depends on news events.

I’ve warned about this in the past and will many times in the future as this bull market rolls on.

I’ve got to take the bad with the good and so far, today was tough in terms of NPSP being off some 16% for the day but I’ll get more into that later on in tonights letter.

 

SPY is close to breaking this small head and shoulders top and I can’t believe it didn’t with the weakness in QQQ and IWM today.

Expect some more weakness for a few more weeks or so on balance.

Have a lovely evening.

Warren