Bouncing Off Support

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“I realized that becoming a master of karate was not about learning 4,000 moves but about doing just a handful of moves 4,000 times.” — Chet Holmes

Stocks held support areas and are moving up.

We’re not breaking out, just consolidating in most cases, so more time is needed but things are holding and shaping up for more strength in the weeks to come.

I’m on a bike trip and working along the way and trying to keep a bigger picture view since

I’m not at my desk all day.

I like it this way much better!

SPY is right up against the downtrend line now so let’s see if we can best it.

Moving above it is positive and I’ll have to be longer in more than just mining stocks.

Have a nice night.

Warren

Just Strong

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“Yesterday’s home runs don’t win today’s games.” – Babe Ruth

Wednesday saw some heavy weakness come into stocks in the afternoon and I reduced some positions since the action was telling me we would remain in a range trade at best and see weakness more likely.

Futures were weak overnight to confirm this but then we saw nice strength today in the end.

This market is just strong and that’s all there is too it.

We will likely see a range trade for a while yet before we see the next breakout higher so adding on weakness and playing range trades looks to be in store.

April is often a strong month but so far it’s not showing that, which is unfortunate.

The good news is the bull market is strong and should continue for a few years to come.

Metals continue to act great with many miners setup to move higher anytime, or some are already.

Let’s see how SPY plays out.

I can’t get excited until we move and close above the downtrend line around 237 for the moment.

We can see 232.50 as the low end of this range and 235 as the mid level so trading off those pivots can work until we breakout higher most likely.

Often, bases last 6 to 8 weeks and this one is in week 6 now since the high in early March.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren

Weak Start, Strong Finish

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“All happiness depends on a leisurely breakfast.”  John Gunther

Mondays have been weak for the past month or so and that has transpired once again.

We firmed up today and I should continue to show strength into weeks end if recent history is any guide.

Gold continues to look and act solid and is looking to move above the 200 day average anytime now.

So, while I did think we’d see a longer period of rest, it is so far not to be.

April tends to be a strong month in stocks and is shaping up that way so far so I’m trying to take advantage of the strength.

I listen to the market and nothing else.

Have a lovely evening.

Warren

Leaders Lead

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“No amount of money, no amount of security is ever going to give you the sense that this is the right time.”  Debbie Millman

Markets took the week to move back up off lows and are now setup to break higher anytime with the Nasdaq leading which is always great.

Many stocks took a little break and have small lows in place with buy levels ready to go.

The very short rest period stocks have taken are a testament to the strength of this bull market.

AMZN is breaking out strongly, MSFT is on the slow go and PCLN won’t stop and other leading stocks are acting very special as well.

I’m in heavy buying mode, but waiting for the right buy levels.

SPY is working back to highs and doing so nice and slow.

A great test of the 50 day is good to see and I should have been into it at that level but I wasn’t.

We should see SPY move up to the 240 area in the week ahead before it give new highs another go after a few days of rest.

Grab all of this weekends buy levels by subscribing and enjoy your weekend.

Warren

I Just Don’t Know

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“If you can’t live through adversity, you’ll never be good at what you do. You have to live through the unfair things, and you have to develop the hide to not let it bother you and keep your eyes focused on what you have to do.” — Maurice “Hank” Greenberg

I don’t really know what’s going on here to be honest.

I thought we’d see a period of consolidation, and we are, but I thought I’d be able to grab a few shorts during this time but it‘s a no go so far.

I’ve tried 3 short positions in the last week and all stopped me out for small losses.

This market just doesn’t want to stop with AAPL hitting new highs today, AMZN on the cusp and MSFT not far behind either.

For me, I think doing nothing for a few days and keeping a close eye for new setups to form is best.

I always find, and have learned the hard way numerous times, that if I don’t know what to do, then do nothing.

SPY bounced at the 50 day average and now has closed back above the 21 day average, which is positive, but I’m still having a hard time believing it, for now at least.

I just think we need more rest but I’ve been wrong before.

Time will tell.

Enjoy your evening and see the rest of this letter by subscribing.

Warren

Fickle Bounce

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”  Jerzy Gregorek

A bit of strength the past couple of days but after such a heavy volume crack lower Tuesday, more consolidation is needed.

Cash is a great place to be with the odd long or short but we need some time to setup the charts again before I’ll be heavy.

We did fade into the close which is what I’d expect at the moment and the early strength was on amoebic volume which doesn’t help the bull case for the short-term.

SPY does not look strong here.
I’d expect at least a test of the 50 day average at 231.85 or so and maybe a move to the 227.50 area.
That said, if we can move back above the 21 day average at 235.20 that would tell me a low is most likely in.

Time will tell but my guess remains 6 to 8 weeks of consolidation before we see the next trending move higher.

There will be swing trades as we wait.

Enjoy the rest of this letter by subscribing and have a nice evening.

Warren

Sold It All

**These are my thoughts on the SPY ETF in my Daily Trade Ideas which includes many, many more charts and setups. Subscribe to my nightly Trade Ideas to see the rest of this letter.**

“The first and the best victory is to conquer self.” – Plato 

Well that wasn’t too fun a day, but not too bad either if you cashed out, as I did.

Unless you are shorting stocks, it’s times like these that you should take off and enjoy some life and spend some of the money we’ve just made.

Sadly, this is about a month early for my next planned trip on the bike.

I did take a short in ALGN today and I may try a few more.

GS and several other leaders are saying we need a nice long consolidation now,  likely 6 to 8 weeks.

Notice, I say consolidation, not correction or bear market.

Seeing the S&P pullback 5% or so and forming a new pattern would be ideal and is very likely as we remain a ways off from the blowoff top in this bull market in my view.

No go for SPY falling on heavy volume.

It’s all good though.

Let’s see where we find support but this may be a nice break in the strong bull market we’re in the midst of.

I’d look for a spike to the 100 day average at 225 or so as a potential low, but it doesn’t matter what I “think”.

I’ll be watching and looking for signs of lows and that’s all I can really do.

See the rest of this letter and get a few potential short positions that may hit.

Enjoy your evening.

Warren